A Threat Assessment and Risk Assessment Model Proposal for Intelligence and Security Purposes in the Republic of Slovenia

Purpose:

The aim of the paper is to point out the differences between threat assessment and risk assessment, and to develop a proposal for an assessment model for intelligence and security purposes in the Republic of Slovenia. The purpose is also to encourage practitioners to use common methodology and terminology in this field.

Design/Methods/Approach:

The paper is of a professional nature and it is based on analysis of the process of threat assessment and risk assessment that is developed for intelligence and security area.

Findings:

The paper points out some confusing aspects regarding current usage of the term threat and risk, and consequently threat assessments and risk assessments. The paper is based on the idea that the threat assessment is a part of a risk assessment that additionally to the threat includes also the importance and vulnerability of the targets. The terminology is also defined, some heuristic solutions are put forward, and a proposal of threat and risk assessment model suitable for intelligence and security purposes in the Republic of Slovenia is made. Intelligence and security are taking place in a complex environment with high level of uncertainty. This fact demands the methodology that is simple and adaptable. The usage of heuristics is recommended, since more confirmed indicators by the threat assessment assume the increased likelihood of the achievement of the objectives set. In risk assessment the elevated risk depends on elevated threat, vulnerability and criticality of the target, and vice versa.

Practical Implications and Value:

The paper deals with threat and risk assessment, and it attempts to unify methodology, terminology and understandings of these assessments in the area of intelligence and security.

UDC: 351.746.1(497.4)

Keywords: intelligence, security, targets, threats, risks, vulnerabilities, threat assessment, risk assessment, Slovenia